Pout Mask Replica
My original intent was to write a post about Agatha All Along and Kathryn Hahn’s acting technique which revolves around her lips. In fact, this post has nothing to do with Agatha but I liked the title too much to discard, so here we are.
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You may have noticed that, unlike the rest of what used to be called the blogosphere, I have not rushed to offer any hot takes on the US Presidential election, or even, for that matter, any tepid takes. This was deliberate. Everyone else was doing it and I’m not sure that I have anything to offer anyway. It’s not as though I don’t have opinions, just that I left them on WhatsApp with trusted friends rather than published them here. Nonetheless, I do have thoughts a week on.
Assuming that the election is certified when the votes are finally counted (and it is not unreasonable to muse that a pathological liar and cheat might be found to have lied and cheated), then 45 will become 47 in January 2025. He may or may not serve a full term: the man is clearly unwell and it would not surprise me in the least to see JD Vance ascend to the Oval Office before 2028. There are many consequences of the election result and I see a lot of them on my TikTok feed as various people advise their fellow (liberal) Americans which countries might offer them refuge, and Americans currently residing in Europe and elsewhere look for ways to extend their stay.
I make no prediction other than this: if 47 and his backers do what they said they would on the campaign trail, America will be in very deep shit economically and socially and the fallout will hit the rest of us – probably Ukraine first then the overall situation in the Middle East and then possibly Taiwan, which will have knock on impacts on India, Australia and New Zealand. The only winner in the medium to long term will be China.
Whether it gets that far, I don’t know. At the time of writing the composition of the House is not known and Moscow Mitch is reportedly trying to ensure the majority in the Senate is led by someone not totally dingbats (indeed, as I write, Rick Scott has been eliminated from the race).
Added: GOP projected to take House; Thunes GOP leader in Senate
Also, and this is not a prediction, just musing, authoritarian autocrats do not willingly relinquish office once they get it, and 45/47 is surrounded by authoritarian autocrats on the make. How far the House and Senate are able to apply any checks and balances depends a lot on internecine conflicts and hit-jobs within the GOP. There must be at least a chance that 47 will not get his agenda through despite having the Supreme Court as his wholly-owned subsidiary, although I’m not optimistic.
Stepping into hyperbole territory for a moment: reading 1930s newspapers, it is clear that everyone expected the rise of the National Socialists under Hitler and attainment of Chancellorship in January 1933; what they did not expect was the burning of the Reichstag 27 days later. To be clear, I’m not making a prediction, just noting that the authoritarian playbook is frequently to whip the rug out from opponents who rely on decency and constitutional norms.
It seems to me that there are many reasons for the outcome of the election and I see no point in trying to reduce it to a single factor beyond the apparent truth that either a majority of Americans prefer a grifting criminal sex-offender over a flawed but competent alternative, or they do not care enough to get up off their arses and vote. Something that struck me immediately about the appalled cries of ‘but we’re not all like this’ was to note that ‘ but not all Americans’ has very much the same vibes as ‘but not all men.’ Not enough thought is given to the idea that the result is not an aberration but an accurate reflection of the current state of the American polity.
Having said that, Biden and the Democrats must shoulder at least some of the responsibility for their own failure. In big picture terms, Biden did a decent job of rescuing the American economy from the structural mess he inherited from 45, but not decent enough that it was obvious in the wallet or pocket book of the median voter. Whatever the big picture indicators, the economy was not perceived as performing well and as Clinton observed, ‘It’s the [perception of the] economy, stupid.’ But more than that, in persisting, understandably, with being the reasonable, decent and polite alternative to 45, the man steadying the ship, Biden declined to wield the stiletto to put an end to the threat that we could all see. As he himself noted early in his presidency, when he said ‘America is back’ to world leaders the response was always, ‘But for how long?’ His manifest failures in Ukraine and the Middle East did not help.
So what about the rest of us?
Whatever it might think, America long ago lost any claim to be ‘the leader of the free world,’ to the extent that the tag ever had any substantive content. For all 45/47 wants to ‘make America great again,’ he had precisely the opposite effect last time and will likely do so again.
After the UK election, I wrote here that,
As for what happens now with the Starmer administration, my view is that there are no major policy areas, domestic or international, that should not be recast as a matter of urgency in the context of uncontrolled climate change. This is also the context for rebuilding social institutions near-destroyed by the Tories, institutions that ought to provide some resilience and mitigation in the face of current and coming climate change impacts. The incoming government must also have strategies in place to respond to the Russia/N Korea/China axis and the slow collapse of the USA.
There is no logical way that any such objectives can succeed unless the government pursues a strategy of strengthening ties with Europe.
I stand by that. Although 47 will want to try and peel the UK further away from Europe, in line with Putin’s desires, my current view is that 47’s presidency is just as likely to hasten movement of the UK closer to Europe in practical terms if not legal and constitutional. However, Starmer must read, mark and inwardly digest the lesson of Biden’s failure: he cannot rely on being rewarded for stolid, boring decency, and nor can he afford the indulgence of thinking all will be well over the medium term: he must ensure that it will, and that requires leadership not management.
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