I Wonder What’s Gone Wrong
I didn’t watch the US presidential debate; why would I? But I did see some of the reaction to it.
It was well known before the 2016 election exactly what sort of person 45 is, and his time in office hasn’t done much except to confirm what sort of person he is. I do not see why those who voted for him last time will change their minds this time if the issues are solely racism, misogyny and corruption. His base and supporters have clearly affirmed that they’re OK with all those things. It follows that outrage at his behaviour is irrelevant: if you want to dislodge him it will have to be on other grounds. The Covid death toll might do it, but his base seem inured to that too, so I wouldn’t count on it.
I was interested to see native Americans condemning both candidates as representatives of a corrupt and genocidal settler hegemony. They have a point. I think the main (only?) thing Biden has going for him is that he isn’t 45. Hilary Clinton was a stronger candidate and won the popular vote. I’m not convinced Biden will do the same. The key number at the last election was the 100m Americans who, for one reason or another did not vote, and see no reason to vote this time either. If that stays a constant, I’d say this is too close, and therefore my assumption is there will be two terms of 45.
For all the outrage, Ladbrokes had this morning shifted the odds on 45 getting a second term from evens to 6/5.
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In Covid news, this, by the ever excellent and often prescient Zeynep Tufekci in The Atlantic is a good read. It uses the word ‘stochastic’ again and makes sense.
The Overlooked Variable Driving the Pandemic.
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Music: Paul Simon’s classic American Tune came out in 1973, a year after Watergate, a year before Nixon resigned during his second term. It still resonates, and Darrell Scott’s reading is perfect.
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